2012 Republican frontrunners

Who will rise from the ashes of the Republican Party to carry the flag against Barack Obama in 2012? Candidates already are testing the waters and plotting strategies less than five months into the Obama Administration.

Here’s our take on the early leaders and their chances:

1. Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House: Everything old is new again. After falling out of favor and out of the House, Gingrich has re-emerged, packaging himself as a man of bold ideas and vision. Having already dismissed Obama as a “failure,” Gingrich sounds ready for his own kind of change. Will the Party want to go back to the future? Many apparently do, and Gingrich will be a factor, at least early in the process.

2. Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor: A shrewd businessman who performed a near-miracle in saving the 2002 Salt Lake City, Romney suffers from an image of being stiff and distant. In hindsight, many Republicans wish he had won the nomination over John McCain in 2008, and he has appeal as a compromise choice. Whether he can energize enough of the Party to get over the hump remains to be seen.

3. Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska and 2008 Vice-Presidential nominee: Stays in the discussion because (1) she was popular with a large segment of the Party, and (2) the Party has yet to identify a clear front-runner. Didn’t fare well under scrutiny of her experience and general knowledge of world politics and events, but the Party has been known to ignore such shortcomings in the past.

4. Jeb Bush, former Governor of Florida: Could the Republicans actually nominate another Southern governor named Bush? Given George W.’s standing both in and outside the Party by the time he left Washington, it’s hard to believe they would go to that well again. Without the baggage, he’d be a much stronger contender.

5. Haley Barbour, governor of Mississippi: The former Party chairman scheduled appearances in Iowa and New Hampshire for June. He’s going ostensibly to help raise money for Republicans, but testing the waters for himself may be on the agenda as well.

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